1

White Christmas possible, but not likely

At Providence, precipitation Sat (Christmas Day) could begin 5:00am as freezing rain but change to all rain by 9:00am, likely ending Sat 6:00pm but possibly persisting into Sun 7:00am.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect Sat 1:00-10:00am for possible freezing rain and sleet that could cause slippery roads and ice accretion on trees and power lines.

If there is at least an inch ground covering of snow on Sat morning around 7:00am that qualifies as a traditional “Write Christmas,” but this seems unlikely.

The next chance of rain or snow will be Tue night into Wed.




White Christmas possible, but not likely

At Providence, two periods of precipitation, the first Fri until 11:00am and the second Sat (Christmas Day) 4:00am-11:00pm, could put a tiny amount of snow on the ground at some point.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Sat 1:00-10:00am for possible freezing rain and sleet that could cause slippery roads and ice accretion on trees and power lines.

The first period is likely to be snow but little accumulation is expected, at most a fraction of an inch. The second period could begin as snow or sleet, but is expected to be all rain by Sat 9:00am, likely ending Sat night but possibly persisting into Sun midday.

If there is a ground covering of snow on Sat morning around 7:00am that qualifies as a traditional “Write Christmas,” but temperatures above freezing Fri afternoon likely will melt any earlier accumulation.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is 0.1 in, with probabilities 27% for at least 0.1 in and near 0% for 1 in.




White Christmas possible, but not likely

At Providence, two periods of precipitation, the first Fri 4:00am-11:00am and the second Sat (Christmas Day) 4:00am-11:00pm, could put a tiny amount of snow on the ground at some point.

The first period is likely to be snow but little accumulation is expected, at most a fraction of an inch. The second period could begin as snow or sleet, but is expected to be all rain by Sat 9:00am, likely ending Sat night but possibly persisting into Sun midday.

If there is a ground covering of snow on Sat morning around 7:00am that qualifies as a traditional “Write Christmas,” but temperatures above freezing Fri afternoon likely will melt any earlier accumulation.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is 0.1 in, with probabilities 71% for at least 0.1 in, 1% for 1 in, and near 0% for 2 in.




Snow Saturday possible, but no accumulation likely

At Providence, rain already occurring today (Sat) is likely to end tomorrow (Sun) 6:00am, with decreasing probability of any snow at all, although some mix with snow and sleet is possible around sunset in the 3:00-5:00pm time frame.

Warm temperatures no lower than 35F should prevent accumulation, with some potential for a fraction of an inch before ending, but the most likely scenario is all rain.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is zero, with probabilities 4% for at least 0.1 in and near 0% for 1 in.

Greater accumulation in the 1-4 inch range is possible far to the north of the metropolitan area into northern MA where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted effective Sat 7:00am-Sun 7:00am.




Snow Saturday possible, but no accumulation likely

This forecast has been updated: motifri.com/wx-2021-12-18-1035est

At Providence, precipitation is likely today (Sat) 11:00am through tomorrow (Sun) 6:00am, beginning as rain and possibly changing to snow or rain-snow-sleet mix before changing back to rain.

Warm temperatures several degrees above freezing should prevent accumulation, with some potential for a fraction of an inch before ending, but the most likely scenario is all rain.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is zero, with probabilities 18% for at least 0.1 in and near 0% for 1 in.

Greater accumulation in the 1-4 inch range is possible far to the north of the metropolitan area into northern MA where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted effective Sat 7:00am-Sun 7:00am.




Snow Saturday possible, but no accumulation likely

This forecast has been updated: motifri.com/wx-2021-12-18-0435est

At Providence, precipitation is likely tomorrow (Sat) 9:00am through Sun 7:00am, beginning as rain and possibly changing to snow or rain-snow-sleet mix before changing back to rain after 3:00pm.

Warm temperatures several degrees above freezing should prevent accumulation, with some potential for a fraction of an inch before ending, but the most likely scenario is all rain.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is zero, with probabilities 28% for at least 0.1 in and near 0% for 1 in.

Greater accumulation in the 1-4 inch range is possible far to the north of the metropolitan area into northern MA where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted effective Sat 7:00am-Sun 7:00am.




Little to no accumulation from first snow of the 2021-2022 season

At Providence, precipitation is likely today (Wed) 1:00pm through tomorrow (Thu) 3:00am, beginning as rain and possibly changing to snow or rain-snow mix after 5:00pm.

Warm temperatures several degrees above freezing should prevent accumulation until at least 11:00pm, with some potential for a fraction of an inch before ending, but the most likely scenario is all rain.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is 0.1 inches, with probabilities 71% for at least 0.1 in, 2% for 1 in, and near 0% for 2 in.

Greater accumulation in the 1-3 inch range is possible far to the north of the metropolitan area into central MA.




Little to no accumulation from first snow of the 2021-2022 season

At Providence, precipitation is likely tomorrow (Wed) 1:00pm through Thu 3:00am, beginning as rain but possibly changing to snow or a rain-snow mix after 5:00pm.

Warm temperatures several degrees above freezing should prevent accumulation until at least 11:00pm, with some potential for a fraction of an inch before ending.

The median accumulation forecast in the city is 0.1 inches, with probabilities 66% for at least 0.1 in, 22% for 1 in, 1% for 2 in, and near 0% for 4 in.

Greater accumulation in the 1-2 inch range is possible far to the north of the metropolitan area into central MA.




TS Henri: RI spared worst effects as storm passes

As of 5pm EDT Sun, Aug 22, 2021 in RI: All watches and warnings have been discontinued.

TS Henri spared RI its worst effects: Rain has already ended over most of the state and winds should subside by 7pm. The storm is barely hanging onto tropical storm status with maximum sustained winds 40MPH, and likely will be downgraded to tropical depression later tonight.

The main effects in RI have been electrical outages.

Tropical Storm Henri: Probability of tropical storm force winds for five-day period beginning Sun, Aug 22, 2021, 2pm EDT.
Tropical Storm Henri: Probability “cone” of track of storm center for five-day period beginning Sun, Aug 22, 2021, 5pm EDT.

A second wave of rain is possible tomorrow 6pm to 11pm, but nowhere near tropical storm conditions.




Electrical Outages Main Henri Problem: RI gets more wind than rain as storm passes to west

Although it is too early to be sure, with most of RI on the eastern side of the path of TS Henri the main consequence of the storm is electrical outages. As of 1:47pm, National Grid was reporting 424 outages affecting 81,964 customers. Most of those affected are in southern RI, where the storm center was reported over Block Island at 11am EDT and, according to the National Hurricane Center, made landfall in the Westerly area at 12:15pm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.

Because low pressure centers such as storms have counter-clockwise airflow (in the Northern Hemisphere), regions to the east of the track receive higher velocity wind with the forward motion of the storm added while regions to the west of the track receive higher rainfall.

National Grid electrical outage status
(Source: https://outagemap.ri.nationalgridus.com/ )

Terry Sobolewski, interim president of National Grid New England, said at the press conference with RI Gov. Daniel McKee at 10am today that he expected the storm and its recovery to be a “long duration” event. It is not safe to send out repair crews until wind and rain have died down, he explained, and then he expects it will take 12 to 24 hours to assess damage and determine where to deploy workers. At the prior press conference at 3:15pm yesterday he said that mutual assistance agreements had already been activated and, by that point, there were 230 line crews and more than 100 forestry crews with about 1,000 personnel already staging.

Speaking with McKee after his press conference yesterday, this Motif reporter asked him what priorities he raised with President Joe Biden earlier in the afternoon in a telephone conference call involving a number of governors of states expected to be affected by Henri. McKee pulled out his notes from the conversation and said that, in addition to asking for federal help through the National Guard and American Red Cross, prolonged electrical outages that lasted for days, as happened with Hurricane Sandy in 2012, could prove devastating to small businesses especially after the downturn caused by the pandemic. McKee said that Biden responded that he shared that concern and, in response to McKee’s request, would personally call the consortium responsible for arranging mutual aid in restoring electrical service and offer any federal government assistance they needed.

Damage so far from southern RI seems mostly downed trees in Narragansett and some flooding in Westerly, but RI Emergency Management Director Marc Pappas told Motif that there had been few reports of serious structural damage and RI had so far been fortunate to escape the worst water from rainfall and storm surge.

To the west of the storm track, Flash Flood Warnings have been posted for coastal Connecticut, and forecasts of as much as 6 to 10 inches of rainfall were possible in the Bridgeport-New Haven area. While wind can cause problems, especially with electrical outages, most injuries and deaths associated with tropical weather systems are from water.